Bain Luck
The most engaging way to explore what the world thinks will happen.
Not “-150 / +130” — just probabilities.
What You Can Explore
We aggregate prediction markets and betting odds across every category — not just sports.
Do Prediction Markets Predict Anything?
We analyzed 474,000+ resolved outcomes across Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbooks. When markets say something has a 30% chance, does it really happen 30% of the time?
View calibration reportWhen Sources Disagree, Who's Right?
We track 6 independent probability sources for every game. When sportsbooks, prediction markets, and statistical models diverge, which one ends up closest to the truth?
View source intelligenceHow It Works
We ingest data from 8 sources — 20+ sportsbooks via The Odds API, prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket), ESPN, MLB Stats API, DataGolf, and proprietary stat models — then blend them into a single probability using weighted multi-source aggregation.
You see what the market as a whole thinks will happen, not just one bookmaker's opinion. Source attribution is always visible — tap any probability to see where it comes from.
The Discover Feed
Browse interesting predictions across every category. Each card shows a probability — guess Higher or Lower, then see where you stack up against the market.
By the Numbers
Philosophy
- ✓Probability-first — Every number is a probability, not a moneyline
- ✓Fans first — Built for people who want context, not betting advice
- ✓Source transparency — See where every probability comes from
- ✓Cross-source — Aggregate across all markets, not just one
- ✓No gambling — Informational only, always
Disclaimer
Bain Luck is for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not encourage or facilitate gambling. Win probabilities are derived from publicly available betting market data and prediction market prices and do not constitute betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.