Weather markets · Live
What are the odds it rains tomorrow?
Weather markets translated into plain probabilities. Rain, temperature, hurricanes, climate — updated live.
Global temperature map
Tomorrow's high, as a probability distribution.
Polymarket & KalshiNatural events
Bigger picture. Rarer events.
Hurricanes · Earthquakes · Tornadoes⊙
Seismic activity
Earthquake threshold markets.⟳
Tornadoes
Season-long count markets.Climate dashboard
Slow-moving markets. Long-horizon odds.
2026 · 2030 · 20502026
This year2030
End of decade2050
Mid-centuryWild cards
Rare events. Shareable numbers.
Precipitation
Rain & rainfall
NYC · 7-day rain probability
Daily “Will it rain?” markets from Kalshi
July rainfall
Kalshi“Above 1 inch this month” — 10 cities
24h change shown at rightKalshi · 10 cities