Weather markets · Live
What are the odds it rains tomorrow?
521 weather markets translated into plain probabilities. Rain, temperature, hurricanes, climate — updated live.
Featured · Daily rain
Will it rain in NYC tomorrow?
72%
LikelyKalshi
Resolves Tue, Apr 21
Global temperature map
54 cities. Tomorrow's high, as a probability distribution.
Polymarket & Kalshi · 432 markets23°F → 104°F
HIGH · APR 20, 2026AMERICASEUROPE / AFRICAASIA / OCEANIA
New York 51°
54 cities shown · tap a pin for distribution11 cross-source
Americas
New York
Tomorrow's high temperature · Apr 20, 2026
51°F
33%most likely bucket
50-51 is the modal outcome
33%
<45°F
45-46
47-48
49-50
50-51
52-53
54-55
56-57
58-59
60-61
62°F+
Click any pin on the map · 11 outcome buckets (Polymarket)
Natural events
Bigger picture. Rarer events.
Hurricanes · Earthquakes · TornadoesHurricane Season · 2026
Atlantic season tracker
80%≥1 major hurricane in 2026
21%
34%
58%
78%
88%
60%
24%
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Hurricane forms by May 31Polymarket
21%Hurricane makes US landfall by May 31Polymarket
8%Any Cat 4 lands in US before 2027Polymarket
36%Any Cat 5 lands in US before 2027Polymarket
15%⊙
Seismic activity
Earthquake threshold markets.Megaquake before June 30
PolymarketTue, Jun 30
18%
Another 7.0+ earthquake by Apr 30
PolymarketThu, Apr 30
37%
9.0+ earthquake before 2027
PolymarketThu, Dec 31
10%
8.0 earthquake in California before 2027
KalshiThu, Dec 31
8%
8.0 earthquake in California before 2028
KalshiFri, Dec 31
13%
8.0 earthquake in Japan before 2030
Kalshi2029-12-31
50%
Zero 6.5+ quakes this week
PolymarketSun, Apr 26
48%
⟳
Tornadoes
Season-long count markets.>170 tornadoes in April
PolymarketThu, Apr 30
32%
1250+ US tornadoes in 2026
PolymarketThu, Dec 31
60%
Climate dashboard
Slow-moving markets. Long-horizon odds.
2026 · 2030 · 20502026
This yearAny month of 2026 is hottest on record
78%
Polymarket2026 is the hottest year ever
38%
Kalshi2030
End of decadeCO₂ concentration above 440 ppm before 2030
88%
KalshiUS meets climate goals by 2030
16%
KalshiEU meets 2030 climate goals
44%
KalshiIndia meets its 2030 climate goals
66%
KalshiEV market share above 10% in 2030
87%
Kalshi2050
Mid-centuryWorld passes 2°C over pre-industrial by 2050
78%
KalshiWild cards
Rare events. Shareable numbers.
Once-in-civilization
Supervolcano erupts before 2050
21%
KalshiUnlikely
Ice record
Arctic sea ice <4M km² this summer
43%
PolymarketToss-up
Space weather
Major solar storm before April 30
3%
PolymarketUnlikely
Space weather
Zero major space weather events this week
38%
PolymarketToss-up
Volcanic
Zero VEI≥4 volcano eruptions in 2026
55%
PolymarketToss-up
Precipitation
Rain & rainfall
NYC · 7-day rain probability
Daily “Will it rain?” markets from Kalshi
TodayApr 20🌧️72%
TueApr 21🌧️66%
WedApr 22⛅34%
ThuApr 23☔100%
FriApr 24⛅35%
SatApr 25☔100%
SunApr 26🌧️74%
Resolves daily at midnight ETApr 20 – Apr 26
May rainfall
Kalshi“Above 1 inch this month” — 10 cities
NYC
92%—
Seattle
85%-2
Miami
74%+3
Houston
62%-1
Chicago
58%+4
Austin
51%-3
San Francisco
42%—
Dallas
38%+2
Denver
34%-5
Los Angeles
10%—
24h change shown at rightKalshi · 10 cities